I am an analytical person by nature, and I by and large agree with the way that thoughtful, analytically driven sports teams build their talent. But one issue that has bothered me more than a reliance on a certain arcane stat or a resistance to spending money is simply the obsession with timing.
In Major League Baseball, particularly, every big team should be in on every big free agent, regardless of their circumstances. Particularly when that free agent represents a rare opportunity.
My case in point to friends has been, for years, Bryce Harper, who hit free agency ahead of his age 26 season. Harper was the rarest of rare: an uber-prospect who had actually delivered on the hype, the LeBron James of baseball, whose impact was only dimmed by the fact that single baseball players can only impact a team of 26 so much. The only concern for Harper was durability, as he played under 120 games in three of his seven seasons in Washington.
But he was also a Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player and six-time All-Star and one of the more marketable players in the game. His postseason numbers were not exactly Big Papi, but they also weren’t A-Rod. He was, barring injury, a sure-fire Hall of Famer.
Which made the lack of interest in his services somewhat confusing. Sure, if you go back into the MLB Trade Rumors archive you’ll see notes that eight teams had checked in on him, or that there was interest beyond what was being reported…but the only real known interest was from the Dodgers, Giants, and Phillies. The Dodgers only wanted a shorter, higher-AAV deal; the Giants balked at his eventual price, a then-record 13-year, $330 million deal with Philadelphia.
The problem is, that’s just three teams: Every other big team should have been in there making an offer. The Yankees should have been dying to put him in pinstripes, a chance to put a premier player into their market. Same for the Cubs, same for the Mariners, same for the Mets. And don’t get me started on the Red Sox, who presumably were saving their money in case they needed to re-sign Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers.
These teams made excuses that don’t matter–they might need the money elsewhere; they already had a guy at the position; or, my least favorite, that the timing wasn’t right.
Who cares?
When you have endless revenue streams and a rabid fan base, you should do everything to acquire the best players, and figure out the other stuff later. Worry about your luxury tax issues with other positions; cheap out on a second baseman if it’s such a big deal. Maybe don’t play so much for a fourth starter.
And stop worrying that your farm system isn’t perfectly aligned to produce major leaguers every season, like the Dodgers. If you know what you’re doing, you’ll get there eventually.
Were the Phillies on the verge of a championship in 2019? No. But they are now, and because they smartly invested in one of the best players in baseball when he was available, they now have him–still very much in his prime–for what should be a pretty competitive period for them.
So when you see the Cubs talking about intelligent spending, or the Red Sox talking about spreading risk and maximizing marginal free agent dollars per win, and they don’t even think about talking to an Aaron Judge or Carlos Correa unless they can get some kind of deal, remember that these kinds of players only come around so often. If you’re a big club with big resources, you should do everything you can to be in on them.