
With reports that the Red Sox would entertain a Chris Sale trade circulating, not to mention the team passing on re-signing Nathan Eovaldi at a very reasonable rate, you have to wonder whether Chaim Bloom & Co. might look to consolidate some unpopular business, treat 2023 as a bridge year, and move their focus to 2024.
What would that look like?
It could take many forms. It could involve keeping some players you would assume would be part of a teardown–even if they punt on 2023, signing Rafael Devers for 12 years would still be a good idea–or it could involve trading everyone over the age of 24.
I think the big things to focus on are contract length and years of service. These are clearly priorities to this ownership and this baseball operations department. Thinking about it in this way, it’s clear which guys could find their way out the door.
Here are a list of moves that could comprise a punt-on-2023 plan:
Trade Chris Sale for prospects…but not yet
What you’d get back for Sale is up for debate, of course, but if the trade market views him as positive value and you can get something for him–and you’ve totally abandoned the possibility of competing in 2023–then it is clearly a good first move.
He is under control for two more years totalling $55 million, which would not be super valuable to a rebuilding team. But for a competitor hoping for some upside, it could be a good gamble.
The timing on this move is crucial though. The chances on Sale being a positive asset right now are slim, so the team would be better off holding him for the first half, allowing him to show he’s healthy, and then move him at the deadline to a contender. This strategy should facilitate him not exercising his veto of the trade as true contenders will be better known in July than they are in January.
Trade Trevor Story for prospects or a shorter-termed, shorter-money starting pitcher
Another situation where if you can find someone in the market to view him as positive value, I think you have to consider it. There are reports that the Red Sox decision makers are split on whether he can be a shortstop. If you don’t feel confident he can be a shortstop, it would be crazy to keep him. If we’re living in this new world where the Red Sox are penny-pinching, why would you spend big on a second baseman?
I see two possibilities for flipping Story: for whatever prospects you can pull back, or for a starting pitcher who is maybe overpaid, but maybe not as much as Story is. I’d start by calling the Giants after their underwhelming offseason and gauging their valuation of Story.
Sign Triston Casas long-term
If the Red Sox are really going to start planning and roster-building, they need to get serious about locking in some of their young guys early on, before they start wanting to go year to year. There aren’t a lot of 1B comps on long-term, buy-out-arb-and-free-agency deals, but maybe you take a handful of 3B and OF situations (KeBryan Hayes, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Ryan McMahon, Eugenio Suarez), mix them around in a blender, and find a number over 8-10 years that everyone likes.
Sign Brayan Bello long-term
Same thing I said about Casas, but for a pitcher. Look around at some of the long-term deals young pitchers have signed the last few years (Blake Snell, Kyle Freeland, Spencer Strider, Sandy Alcantara) and find a number for 7-8 years that guarantees Bello big money and buys out at least a couple free agent years
Trade Alex Verdugo…or sign him long-term?
I’m not really a Verdugo guy, however there is value in a solid, average major leaguer, particularly one that can add value on defense in the outfield and competently play right field at Fenway, which is not easy.
I’d shop him, but if the Red Sox can’t find a decent prospect package back, I’d start talking to him about a contract to bypass free agency. Old friend Andrew Benintendi just got $75 million over 5 years and has put up better offense, but doesn’t have the glove value. If the Red Sox could lock Verdugo up for five years at a lower value (say, $60 million?) it would be a savvy investment for a big-market team. At that number, barring injury, Verdugo would retain trade value, so the Sox could pull the ripcord at any trade deadline if they no longer wanted him.
…and make the same decision on Rafael Devers
This is obviously the most important decision, and it’s kind of silly that I’m burying it here after Verdugo. I would, obviously, prioritize extending Devers, but if the price is truly beyond what the team could imagine being comfortable with–if he says he wants 14 years at $30 million per and doesn’t budge, say–then it’s time to trade him right now. Get as close to a sure-thing positional prospect as you can find, some potential high-end pitching, and some lower-league fliers, and move on.
Type up a big, long list of names to move at the deadline–and deliver on it
Virtually everyone outside of the extended kids, Masataka Yoshida, and Devers and/or Verdugo must be dealt at the deadline: Kenley Jansen, Kiké Hernandez, Chris Martin, Nick Pivetta, James Paxton, Christian Arroyo, Reese McGuire, Rob Refsnyder, and any other reliever or bit player you want, they’re all available.
The Sox could bring back prospects or simply more years of control–for example, they might cash a year and a half of Pivetta to a contender looking for depth for a different starter who is in the majors, but has four or five years left and the Sox think has room to grow. The important thing is to get some sort of value back, rather than letting guys hit free agency for nothing, like they did for certain franchise shortstops.
What do you have at the end of this? A 75-win, completely forgettable 2023, but maybe in 2024 you’ve got the seeds planted for the next competitive run for this club.